Posted 31 October 2009
"The errors from the [IPCC] projections were more than seven times greater than the errors from the benchmark method. Relative errors were larger for longer forecast horizons. Our validation exercise illustrates the importance of determining whether it is possible to obtain forecasts that are more useful than those from a simple benchmark before making expensive policy decisions." - Paper by Drs Kesten C Green, J. Scott Amrstong and Willie Soon for the 2009 International Institute of Forecasters.
LINK to dowload pdf document